Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 2.015340 2.133059 2.256753 2.396881 2.551794 2.718477 2.912276
2025-08-31 1.842485 2.005330 2.184619 2.398339 2.648438 2.934753 3.291666
2025-09-07 1.738954 1.929024 2.145164 2.412380 2.738566 3.130320 3.647021
2025-09-14 1.635551 1.839334 2.076585 2.377980 2.757974 3.231949 3.886709
2025-09-21 1.549637 1.761972 2.013935 2.341270 2.765359 3.311915 4.098760
2025-09-28 1.473240 1.690224 1.951776 2.297994 2.757066 3.365777 4.275083
2025-10-05 1.442058 1.671180 1.952292 2.332468 2.850362 3.560730 4.671090
2025-10-12 1.415547 1.655699 1.955210 2.368518 2.946296 3.765572 5.106328
2025-10-19 1.388449 1.637510 1.952754 2.395865 3.030389 3.959035 5.548933
2025-10-26 1.348719 1.600881 1.923740 2.384188 3.056349 4.065778 5.860756
2025-11-02 1.311939 1.566328 1.895478 2.371231 3.078342 4.166650 6.174918
2025-11-09 1.272781 1.526985 1.858802 2.343874 3.076012 4.227128 6.422517
2025-11-16 1.235493 1.489348 1.823597 2.317758 3.075236 4.292385 6.695051
2025-11-23 1.210205 1.466855 1.808167 2.319393 3.117356 4.433210 7.142484
2025-11-30 1.190576 1.451136 1.801209 2.332690 3.178184 4.611562 7.703061
2025-12-07 1.157377 1.415709 1.765069 2.300118 3.161924 4.650053 7.962888
2025-12-14 1.125417 1.380999 1.728674 2.265341 3.139547 4.674782 8.195522
2025-12-21 1.093249 1.345095 1.689371 2.224320 3.104089 4.671602 8.360851
2025-12-28 1.085234 1.342453 1.697608 2.257000 3.195357 4.918922 9.209823
2026-01-04 1.078035 1.340596 1.706704 2.291156 3.291248 5.186489 10.196583
2026-01-11 1.068786 1.335463 1.710654 2.317054 3.374110 5.437694 11.227030
2026-01-18 1.049764 1.315830 1.692377 2.305997 3.389047 5.546768 11.860619
2026-01-25 1.031295 1.296495 1.673904 2.293726 3.400772 5.649969 12.512737